Insight ReportUS Retail Sales Outlook—Preview: Latest Retail Projections in the Absence of Government Data John Mercer, Head of Global Research and Managing Director of Data-Driven Research November 7, 2025 Reasons to ReadIn the absence of US Census Bureau retail sales amid the federal government shutdown, we provide our new ML-driven estimates for monthly retail sales growth, for each of the 12 months from September 2025. This report provides a preview of our regular US Retail Sales Outlook report. Every month in that report, we examine several key macroeconomic indicators and analyze how they may impact retail sales in the coming months. In addition, our model provides proprietary retail sales projections for each of the next 12 months. Already a subscriber? Log in You are currently viewing a preview of this report. Please select an access option to view the full report. Hide Options - Show Options + Get unlimited access to all our research with one of our subscription plans. View Subscription Plans or Contact us to purchase this report. Contact us ✕ This document was generated for Other research you may be interested in: Analyst Corner: What Happened with US and China Consumer Sentiment on the Eve of Expected Tariffs? with John MercerNRF 2025: Retail’s Big Show—Top 10 Tech Themes, from Computer Vision and RFID to AI-Powered Associate DevicesFinancial Sentiment At Highest Level Year to Date: Weekly US Consumer Sentiment, Week 32, 2025—InfographicUS Grocery Retailing—Real Estate Insights: Value and Specialty Grocers Drive Polarized Expansion
