Executive Summary

The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2019 US holiday forecast.

• The NRF expects spending in November and December to increase by 3.8%-4.2% year over year, taking total sales to between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion.
• The NRF’s forecast aligns with Coresight Research’s estimate of 4% growth for November and December.
• The NRF’s 2019 forecast is above the five-year historical holiday average of 3.7.
• The solid forecast reflects that the US economy is continuing to grow and that consumer spending is the primary engine behind the growth, according to Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO.
• The impacts of tariffs on holiday spending are unknown, as some merchandise was subject to tariffs that took effect September 1, and other products will have tariffs applied on December 15.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.