Reasons to Read

The US metaverse fashion market is set for huge growth from 2023, but what challenges do brands and retailers need to tackle to see success? This research report explores the state of the market and provides retail companies with essential insights into the positive and negative impacts on profitability of operating in the metaverse.

We dive into the market’s size and trajectory, growth drivers, leading players, recent developments and key challenges. We also analyze proprietary survey data to assess US consumer awareness of, and engagement in, metaverse fashion.

Data in this research report include:

  • US metaverse fashion market size, 2022–2027E
  • Proprietary Coresight Research survey data—US consumers’ awareness of metaverse fashion, categories and brands shopped, and amount shoppers would be willing to spend on a metaverse fashion item
  • NFT revenue of top five fashion companies in the space

Companies mentioned in this report include: Adidas, Alo Yoga, Bloomingdale’s, Coach, Dolce & Gabbana, Gucci, Levi’s, NIKE, Ralph Lauren, Tiffany & Co.

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Reasons to Read

The Coresight Research weekly US Consumer Tracker takes a regular temperature check on US consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

In this report, we present findings from our survey conducted on June 5, 2023.

Data in this research report are our latest proprietary survey findings and four-week changes for:

  • Which retailers consumers have bought food and nonfood products from in the last two weeks
  • What products consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks
  • Amazon’s food and nonfood retail penetration, by state
  • Avoidance of public places, by type of public place
  • Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks

Companies mentioned in this research report include: Aldi, Amazon, Albertsons, Ahold Delhaize, Costco, Dollar General, Dollar Tree/Family Dollar, Kohl’s, Kroger, Macy’s, Target, Walmart

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Reasons to Read

In today’s evolving beauty industry, businesses must stay ahead of the curve and tap into emerging market segments. There is immense potential to capitalize on the current inclusivity zeitgeist and cater to previously underserved consumers.

On June 7, 2023, Coresight Research presented at the first annual Inside Beauty Forum, hosted by Drug Store News, on inclusivity in beauty.

In this presentation, we delve into five under-explored market segments: ethnic and multi-ethnic, Gen Z, women aged 50+, male beauty and adaptive beauty.

Data in this presentation include:

  • US beauty retail market size and growth, 2017–2027E
  • Trends in the US population (age, race)
  • Coresight Research proprietary survey data on US beauty shoppers’ recent spending and shopping habits and preferences

Companies mentioned in this presentation include: Apple, Lululemon, Nordstrom, Target, Walgreens

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Reasons to Read

The 6.18 shopping festival is the second largest annual online shopping festival in China. With sales periods for the event now well under way on major e-commerce platforms, we consider the challenges for e-commerce players this year and present our expectations for the event.

We also look at early performance data and discuss key trends to watch, from discounting to the popularity of domestic brands. 

Data in this report include:

  • Estimated GMV generated by e-commerce platforms during the 6.18 shopping festival 2022
  • Key dates and discounts for the 2023 festival across selected major e-commerce platforms
  • Early performance data, with a focus on the luxury sector
  • Discounting campaigns by selected e-commerce platforms

Companies mentioned in this report include: Alibaba (Taobao/Tmall), Douyin, JD.com, Kuaishou

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Reasons to Read

With emphasis on sustainability in retail increasing, which technologies can retailers use to meet their environmental goals through the supply chain and gain a competitive edge? We explore five sustainability-enhancing technologies through the lens of the Coresight Research EnCORE framework, including environmental impact management platforms, clean-energy delivery vehicles and blockchain.

This report is part of our ongoing RetailTech report series, which provides continued coverage of major technologies in retail.

Companies mentioned in this research report include: Canoo, Google Cloud, IBM, IN BOLD PRINT., Microsoft, Nuro, SmarterX

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Reasons to Read

The Coresight Research weekly China Consumer Tracker takes a regular temperature check on Chinese consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

In this research report, we present findings from our survey conducted on May 29, 2023.

Data in this research report are:

  • Avoidance of public places, by type of public place—latest data and one-and four-week PPT changes
  • Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks
  • What products consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks
  • Expectations for economic conditions and personal finances in the next 12 months
  • A timeline of selected Covid-19 policy changes in China

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Reasons to Read

Each report in the Weinswig’s Weekly series reflects on a topical theme in retail. We also highlight our key research from the past week and upcoming reports to look out for, so you don’t miss out.

This week’s note, “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig,” discusses the need for, and availability of, loss-prevention technologies in retail.

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

Data in this research report include:

  • 2023 week-by-week comparisons of announced store closures and openings in the US and the UK
  • 2022 week-by-week comparisons of announced store closures and openings in the US and the UK
  • 2023 major US store closures and openings
  • 2023 major UK store closures and openings

Companies mentioned in this research report include: Dollar General and Poundland

Other relevant research:

Complementing our weekly reports, the Coresight Research US Store Tracker Databank offers our premium subscribers access to openings and closures data from 2012 to 2023 year to date, filterable by sector and year—now including retailer-level data.

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Loss-prevention events are becoming more frequent, impacting retailers’ profitability and consumer attitudes to shopping in stores. How can retail companies use technologies to tackle security challenges?

On June 7, 2023, Coresight Research presented at NRF Protect on technologies for loss prevention.

In this presentation, we provide insights into the security technology landscape, including RFID tags, computer vision and artificial intelligence (AI), and prescriptive analytics. We also outline the benefits of generative AI in security applications.

Data in this report include:

  • Recent notable shrink/organized retail crime events and loss prevention/asset protection developments in retail
  • Coresight Research proprietary survey data on retail safety fears among US consumers

Companies mentioned in this report include: Apple, Lululemon, Nordstrom, Target, Walgreens

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Introduction

The US beauty market has taken a one-size-fits-all strategy for most of its history. Only over the past decade has the market attempted to represent a broader base of consumers, one outside of its traditional target consumer: young white women. Today, market participants are adopting a more inclusive stance and creating products that address the diverse US population.

We discuss five underserved segments in the US beauty market and how beauty companies can better serve them. The five segments are:

  • Non-white and multiracial beauty shoppers
  • Gen-Z beauty shoppers
  • 50+ female beauty shoppers
  • Male beauty shoppers
  • Adaptive beauty shoppers

Coresight Research has identified the inclusivity as a key trend to watch in retail and a component trend of the Coresight Research RESET framework for change. That framework provides retailers with a model to respond to short-term consumer needs while securing longer-term success (see the appendix of this report for more details).

This report is sponsored by Drug Store News, a leader in news, analysis and trends in the retail pharmacy space with print, digital and event reach exceeding 120,000 unique retailer, supplier, finance, business and consumer media readers each month.

Market Scale and Opportunity

Beauty is generally a low-cost and feel-good category that can withstand economic slowdowns as consumers often continue to purchase lipstick, nail polish and fragrance as token indulgences while holding back from other, larger discretionary purchases. In 2023, as US consumers establish new lifestyle, work and relaxation behaviors and return to the experiential economy amid heightened inflation and interest rates, Coresight Research expects beauty spending in the US to see 4.6% year-over-year growth, resulting in a $74.8 billion market (Figure 1).

Figure 1. US Beauty Products Retail Market Size (USD Bil.) and YoY Growth (%)

Source: Euromonitor International Limited 2022 © All rights reserved/Coresight Research

 

While a homogeneous approach to the beauty market may have worked in the US in the 1950s, it is no longer relevant as the US population has grown increasingly diverse over the past 20 years, a trend that is projected to continue—a diverse consumer base with varied beauty needs defines the current beauty environment. Moreover, growing consumer demand for inclusivity means retailers and brands must address these smaller market segments to remain competitive and relevant. Consumers’ awareness of and advocacy for inclusivity are impacting corporate structures and policies, brand representation, marketing content and even which suppliers companies elect to work with.

There is a significant opportunity for beauty companies and brands to broaden the scope of their products, reaching underserved consumers. We expect that US inclusive beauty spending for consumers of all races, genders and ages will outpace overall beauty spending growth as it meets the unmet needs of a large consumer base, likely doubling the annual year-over-year growth rates we project through 2027 in Figure 1.

Underserved Beauty Markets: Coresight Research Analysis

1. Trends in the US Population

According to the US Census Bureau, in 2020 (latest available data), 61.6% of the total US population identified as white alone, down from 72.4% in 2010. Meanwhile, Americans identifying as “two or more races” (multiracial) grew 276%, from 9.0 million Americans in 2010 to 33.8 million in 2020. Looking forward, the Census Bureau projects that Americans identifying as Black will grow to 13.8% of the total US population by 2023 and 15.0% by 2060. At the same time, it expects that those who identify as Hispanic or Latino will grow to 21.1% of the population by 2030 and 27.5% by 2060, while those who identify as white are expected to drop to 44.3% of the US population by 2060.

Those in the US under the age of 18 are becoming even more ethnically diverse, which brands and retailers should note as these consumers are the future of retail. Just over half (53.0%) of Americans under 18 identify as white (Figure 2), down from 65.0% in 2010, while the proportion of Americans under 18 who identify as multiracial increased from 9.0% in 2010 to 15.0% in 2020.

Figure 2. US Population by Race (% of Population; 2010 vs. 2020)

All options but “two or more races” describe one race alone
Source: US Census Bureau

 

2. Non-White Beauty Shoppers

In May 2023, we surveyed US consumers regarding their beauty purchases, of which 75% purchased beauty products in the three months prior to the survey. Overall, across the cosmetics, fragrance, haircare and skincare categories, the average spend over the three months ended May 15, 2023, was $124 (Figure 3). Unsurprisingly, those with the highest incomes spent the most, at $210 (69.4% more than average). The average non-white beauty shopper spent 25.0% less than the average beauty shopper and 30.6% less than the average white beauty shopper.

Figure 3. US Beauty Shoppers: Average US Beauty Spending (USD)

Base 302 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 15, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

However, while they spent less, 84% of non-white consumers bought beauty products in the three months prior to the survey, a larger percentage than white consumers (74%). Additionally, non-white beauty shoppers bought fragrance products at nearly twice the rate of white consumers, at 36% versus 19% (Figure 4). As beauty brands and retailers offer merchandise that meets the needs of non-white market consumers, we believe, given the segment’s propensity to purchase beauty products, that increased sales will ensue.

Figure 4. US Beauty Shoppers: Beauty Categories Shopped (% of Respondents)

Base: 302 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 15, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

Where Non-White Shoppers Discover Beauty Brands and Products

Non-white beauty shoppers, similar to white beauty shoppers, primarily use stores to discover beauty products; however, they use traditional and social media as avenues of discovery more often than their white counterparts. More than a quarter of non-white beauty shoppers use YouTube and TikTok for beauty discovery, compared to 15% of white beauty shoppers for both channels (Figure 5). Additionally, 23% of non-white beauty shoppers use television to discover beauty products versus 17% of white beauty shoppers.

Figure 5. US Beauty Shoppers: Where They Discover Beauty Products (% of Respondents)


Base: 302 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 15, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

Beauty Shopping Destinations

Beauty brands and retailers need to know where non-white beauty shoppers shop for beauty to reach them successfully. Our survey found that non-white beauty shoppers use multiple beauty formats, namely specialty beauty retailers, mass retailers and department stores.

There are real differences between where white and non-white beauty shoppers buy beauty products, according to our survey (Figure 6). For instance, despite the same-day convenience of Walmart, it is neck in neck with Amazon as the top beauty destination for non-white beauty shoppers, which is not true for white beauty shoppers. Additionally, more non-white beauty shoppers shop at Macy’s than white shoppers, at 14% versus 6%, respectively. Target is the number three beauty destination for non-white beauty shoppers, at 27%, a significantly larger proportion than the 11% of white beauty shoppers that shopped at Target. Similarly, nearly twice as many non-white beauty shoppers shop at Ulta than white beauty shoppers (20% versus 11%, respectively). It should be noted that both Target and Ulta have made extensive efforts to attract diverse employee, shopper and vendor bases, including commitments to increase the number of Black, Indigenous and People of Color (BIPOC) vendors available in their stores.

Figure 6. US Beauty Shoppers: Top Destinations for Beauty Purchases (% of Respondents)

*Excluding Ulta at Target locations
**Excluding Sephora at Kohl’s locations
Base: 302 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 15, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

What Non-White Beauty Shoppers Want From Beauty Brands

Our survey reveals that nearly a quarter of non-white beauty shoppers desire a sense of belonging from beauty brands—almost twice the percentage of white beauty shoppers—thus, beauty brands that address this demand with products specifically designed for non-white beauty shoppers will succeed. For instance, Fenty Cosmetics offers more than 40 shades of foundation, as does Dior’s Forever Foundation range. Using diverse spokespeople, models, celebrities and other key opinion leaders (KOLs) will go far in developing rapport and authenticity with this consumer group, in ways that a mass-market approach with white-only models cannot.

There is some similarity between what non-white and white beauty shoppers seek from beauty brands—a sense of value is by far the most important feature of a beauty brand, regardless of race or income, according to our survey (Figure 7).

Figure 7. US Beauty Shoppers: What Shoppers Want From a Beauty Brand (% of Respondents)

Base: 302 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 15, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

When it comes to specific beauty products, our survey found that price and personal relevance are some of the most important factors that impact non-white consumers’ skincare, haircare, color cosmetics and fragrance purchases:

  • Personal relevance is the number-one driver for skincare purchases and the number-two driver for haircare purchases for non-white consumers.
  • Price ranks as the second most-important factor for skincare purchases, the fourth most-important factor for color cosmetics and fragrance purchases, and the fifth most-important factor for haircare purchases for non-white consumers.

As companies meet the brand and product demands of non-white consumers, we expect non-white beauty shoppers to increase their spending levels, approaching white beauty shoppers’ spending levels. To gain the trust and interest of these consumers, beauty brands can utilize promotional tools such as gift with purchase and purchase with purchase to communicate value and showcase new, relevant products to non-white groups.

Below, we closely examine three specific groups of non-white beauty shoppers: Black, Hispanic and Latino, and multiracial beauty shoppers.

Black Beauty Shoppers

Americans who identify as Black represent 12% of the US adult population, according to the US Census Bureau, and, while their beauty needs are not currently being adequately met, they are still avid beauty shoppers. According to data from NielsenIQ, total beauty spending by Black consumers rose 10% in 2022, driven by a 32% jump in fragrance purchases (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Beauty Spending by Black Consumers

Spending (USD Bil.) YoY Growth (%)
Facial Skincare $1.1 4%
Hand & Body Lotions $1.2 10%
Fragrances $1.5 32%
Cosmetics & Nail Grooming $1.9 4%
Haircare $2.3 6%
Total Beauty Spending by Black Consumers $7.9 10%
Source: NielsenIQ

 

According to the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan think tank, 76% of Black Americans feel that being Black is “extremely or very important” to them. For beauty brands, this means they must connect authentically and personally with Black shoppers. With one-third of Black beauty shoppers also feeling discrimination from the beauty industry, according to Ulta Beauty (see image below), beauty brands and retailers must engage with these shoppers via niche products and models that resonate with them.

Ulta Beauty is focusing its growth strategy on three consumer segments that over index, which it terms “Beauty Enthusiasts.” According to Ulta Beauty’s Analyst Day 2021 presentation, 91% of Black consumers are passionate about the beauty market and spend more at Ulta Beauty than they do at any other beauty retailer.

­­­­­­­­­­A picture containing text, human face, person, person Description automatically generated

­­­­­­­Ulta Beauty on groups it terms “Beauty Enthusiasts”
Source: Company reports

 

Many other retailers and brands have increased their focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI)—as well as increased communication of their DEI efforts to shoppers—in response to consumers’ awareness of and demand for inclusivity. Coresight Research believes these efforts must be genuine and sustained to achieve the desired impact.

Hispanic and Latino Beauty Shoppers

The Hispanic and Latino population—those who identify as Hispanic or Latino to the US Census Bureau—is the largest minority market in the US. This market segment is growing rapidly, as is its spending power. The Hispanic and Latino population totaled 62.1 million in 2020, growing 23% from 2010 and accounting for 18.7% of the total US population. Additionally, according to the University of Georgia, the group’s spending power grew to $1.9 trillion in 2020—an 87% increase from 2010—accounting for 11.1% of US buying power, which the University of Georgia defines as total income after taxes.

Figure 9. US Population: Hispanic and Latino Population (2010 and 2020; % of Population)

Source: US Census Bureau

 

In regard to the beauty market specifically, Hispanic consumers spent 19% more than the average consumer on beauty in 2022, according to NielsenIQ. These numbers align with comments from Ulta Beauty during its Investor Day in October 2021, where it stated that Hispanic beauty shoppers was another key group it is aiming to serve. The company revealed that, of its 70 million beauty enthusiasts, Hispanic consumers spend the most on beauty purchases, revealing the cohort’s beauty opportunity.

Multiracial Beauty Shoppers

According to US Census Bureau data, the population of multiracial Americans—those who identify as “two or more races” to the US Census Bureau—grew rapidly from 2010 to 2020 (see Figure 2), a trend we expect to continue in the decades to come. As the US population becomes more diverse, retailers and brands will not only need products that target these consumers, but will also need to adopt the right media and communication styles to engage with them, including multi-lingual communications and media offerings.

The challenges faced by multiracial consumers vary based on their ethnicities. A mix of skin and hair types could mean the shopper must purchase multiple niche products to achieve a desired result. Targeting this consumer is more difficult than targeting the other cohorts discussed and requires companies to create inclusive messaging and educational content regarding product ingredients and their efficacy for specific uses.

3. Gen-Z Beauty Shoppers

Gen Zers—which Coresight Research defines as those born after 2000—have started entering the beauty market. According to Piper Sandler, which surveyed 5,690 teenagers with an average age of 16 in 2023, teens’ core beauty wallet (cosmetics, skincare and fragrance) stands at $313 annually, a 19% year-over-year increase. This increase was driven by a 32% annual increase in spending on cosmetics—up to $123 annually, meaning spending in the category surpassing skincare spending for the first time since 2020—as well as the return to socialization and events following the pandemic.

According to the Piper Sandler survey, teenage Gen Zers’ beauty spending is focused on specialty retailers, which capture 75% of this cohort’s beauty purchases (Figure 10). In the survey, 41% of teens stated Ulta Beauty was their “favorite” beauty destination, while 63% of female teenagers are in Ulta Beauty’s Ultamate Rewards Program.

Figure 10. Gen Zers: Favorite Beauty Destinations (% of Respondents)

Source: Piper Sandler

 

By brand, the popularity of e.l.f Cosmetics grew 900 basis points year over year in 2022, becoming teenage Gen Zers’ favorite cosmetics brand.

Figure 11. Gen Zers: Favorite Beauty Brands (% of Respondents)

Source: Piper Sandler

 

Value-driven brand and product attributes are increasingly important to the US at large, driven by the demands of young Gen Zers and Millennials. According to the Piper Sandler survey, the top causes for teens are the environment (19%) and racial equality (9%). As Gen Zers are also vocal about various social causes, including inclusivity and mental health, they are quick to call out brands that are not sensitive to their ethics and mores. Beauty brands and retailers should begin engaging with this cohort now to better anticipate and meet their demands. Younger demographics’ values have already started making a difference at many companies, such as GRYT, a skincare brand for teens and tweens that links self-esteem and mind and body wellness with healthy cleansing habits.

According to the 2020 Census, 47% of Americans under 18 are non-white, compared to 34.7% in 2010. Similarly, Ulta Beauty reported that Gen Zers are its most racially diverse group, with almost 50% of its Gen-Z customers identifying as non-white. This diverse generation represents the future of the US beauty market, meaning that the demand for the non-white and multiracial beauty products discussed above will continue to grow. Creating products and communications for these underserved beauty market segments now will put beauty brands in a better position to engage with Gen Zers in the future.

4. Male Beauty Shoppers

Male consumers are increasingly expressing their beauty needs and discovering new products, driving potential for the men’s personal care category to extend beyond traditional grooming to cosmetics and advanced hair and beard care. This is because social norms regarded male cosmetics are changing as Gen Zers have increased social acceptance of males using makeup as a form of personal expression. This trend indicates the emergence of the male cosmetics sector, presenting a white-space opportunity—according to our survey, male beauty shoppers spent just slightly less on beauty products than female beauty shoppers in the three months ended May 15, 2023, at $119 versus $127.

Stores are the primary location where men discover beauty products, similar to women, at 36% to 37%; however, men utilize all other sources and locations of discovery less than women (Figure 12). Specifically, we urge beauty brands to delve into the 32% of males that discover beauty products outside the traditional routes.

Figure 12. US Beauty Shoppers: Where They Discover Beauty Products by Gender (% of Respondents)

Base: 394 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 22, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

Male beauty shoppers are similar to female shoppers regarding what they want from a beauty brand, with two notable exceptions: a sense of understanding and a sense of luxury (Figure 13). As many men have just started exploring the beauty and cosmetics market, they have a greater need to be understood than their female counterparts; however, a sense of luxury is less important to men compared to women.

Figure 13. US Beauty Shoppers: What They Want from a Beauty Brand by Gender (% of Respondents)

Base: 394 US respondents aged 18+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended May 22, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

5. 50+ Female Beauty Shoppers

According to the US Census Bureau, there are 55.6 million women aged 50–80 in the US (as of July 2021; latest available data), making it a sizable demographic. When including those over 80 years old, the consumer base grows to 63.0 million. However, the beauty and wellness industry has largely ignored women over the age of 50 (50+), instead focusing on younger consumers. In doing so, companies have created a highly competitive market for products intended for those under the age of 35, while the needs of older women have remained unaddressed, despite their greater discretionary spending power. According to the IPUMS-CPS (a database from the National Institute of Health and the University of Michigan), in 2022, the average income of adults aged 35 and under was $57,150, while the average income of adults aged 55 and older was $83,100. Today, 50+ women are also living longer, and the aging of Generation X has brought with it a de-stigmatization of age, creating an opportunity that is 55.6 million consumers strong.

50+ women shoppers are looking for value when selecting a beauty brand, with over two-thirds selecting it as what they want most from a beauty brand (Figure 14) in a Coresight Research survey conducted in February 2023. Brands that have already developed a sense of value while focusing on younger consumers should look to ensure their communication strategies resonate with the 50+ demographic. This cohort is likely more cynical regarding the promises of beauty products; we urge realism in communication, including using models that are the right age.

Figure 14. 50+ Women: What They Want from a Beauty Brand (% of Respondents)

Base: 400 US women aged 50+, surveyed in February 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

Our February 2023 survey also found that 50+ women use multiple beauty formats, primarily mass retailers, chain drugstores and brands’ websites. Walmart is top of mind among these beauty shoppers, likely due to multiple reasons:

  • The sharp values the retailer offers
  • Its efforts to retail to higher-income shoppers that “discovered” Walmart during the pandemic via elevated in-store merchandising efforts
  • Its 2022 collaboration with beauty retailer Space NK, which created BeautySpaceNK, a curated beauty space in Walmart stores featuring independent and prestige beauty brands

Amazon is the number-two beauty destination for 50+ women, suggesting shopping ease and efficiency is important to this demographic, supported by the high rankings of convenience drug chains CVS and Walgreens. Beauty brands’ own websites are shopped by 14% of this cohort versus 7.5% of all shoppers; we suggest beauty brands personalize their websites to customers, allowing them to better engage with all types of consumers, including 50+ women.

Figure 15. 50+ Women: Where They Shopped for Beauty in the Past Three Months (% of Respondents)

*Excluding Ulta at Target locations
**Excluding Sephora at Kohl’s locations
Base: 293 US women aged 50+ who purchased beauty products in the three months ended February 20, 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

According to our data, 50+ women spent $95 on beauty purchases in the three months ended February 20, 2023, significantly less than the $124 average (Figure 3), suggesting retailers and brands are leaving money on the table with this consumer group, given its discretionary income (per the IPUMS-CPS data provided above).

6. The Adaptive Beauty Shopper

People with disabilities represent 13% of the adult US population—43.1 million Americans—as of 2021 (the latest available data from the US Census Bureau). Many Americans reported having multiple disabilities across various disability types—hearing, vision, cognitive, ambulatory, self-care and independent living difficulties, as defined by the US Census Bureau (Figure 16)—with ambulatory disabilities (having serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs) being the most prevalent and affecting almost half of Americans with disabilities.

Figure 16. Americans Reporting Disabilities by Type

Disability Type Number of Americans Reporting Disabilities (Mil.) Proportion of Americans with Disabilities

(% of Population)

Hearing difficulties 11.6 26.9%
Vision difficulties 8.1 18.8%
Cognitive difficulties 16.5 38.3%
Ambulatory difficulties 20.4 47.3%
Self-care difficulties 7.8 18.1%
Independent Living difficulties 14.7 34.1%
Americans could report having multiple disabilities, which may fall under different disability types
Source: US Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey (one-year experimental estimates)

 

With more than 40 million Americans having some type of disability, inclusivity should not be an issue; however, the beauty industry has been slow to meet the varied needs of this population, which has a worldwide spending power of $8.0 trillion, according to the Return On Disability Group. We believe that the use of beauty products will rise if they are adapted to the lifestyles of those with disabilities.

Recently, adaptive retail products have moved beyond the apparel and footwear sector, with Microsoft, Procter & Gamble and Unilever launching various adaptive products across the technology, beauty and personal care spaces. Within the beauty industry, product application and usability can create issues for those with disabilities; as such, easier packaging and technology that assists in makeup application are the main forces behind the industry’s current efforts.

  • This year, L’Oréal launched HAPTA, a handheld computerized makeup applicator designed for users with limited hand and arm mobility, earning the company a CES 2023 Innovation Award. According to the website, HAPTA features a magnetic attachment with “360 degrees of rotation and 180 degrees of flexion.” There is also a “clicking feature,” which allows the user to set an intended position, lock the position in and even save the position for future use. HAPTA comes with a rechargeable, built-in battery, which results in one-hour continuous use.

A picture containing human face, person, clothing, lipstick Description automatically generated

The L’Oréal HAPTA handheld computerized makeup applicator
Source: Company website

 

  • Kohl Kreatives offers multiple makeup brush kits that adjust for various motor disabilities, enabling the user to apply cosmetics without the assistance of another, which is foundational to a sense of independence.

What We Think

Beauty brands and retailers should speak to the aforementioned market segments, understand their unsolved beauty and wellness needs, and help solve them. When addressing these opportunities, companies should remember that value is the top priority for all demographic groups; however, each segment also has particular needs that must be addressed to reach that niche successfully. For instance, Black beauty shoppers find it important that brands recognize their culture and heritage, while, for Gen Zers, social issues are a priority. The age-old retail adage, “know your consumer,” remains the best strategy for enjoying the opportunities these underserved cohorts offer.

We see white-space opportunities in each of these underserved market segments and recommend that beauty companies and retailers conduct more research and develop new products that appeal to these market niches. By employing segmentation and personalization strategies that focus on the individual factors important to each market segment, beauty brands and retailers can develop and enhance customer relationships, create brand loyalty and strengthen customer lifetime value.

Implications for Brands/Retailers

  • Segmentation and personalization become more important when addressing the needs of underserved and growing market segments. Companies should design products that are specific for each market segment, supported by targeted communications strategies.
  • Communication strategies must be tailored to specific audiences. The same ad will not work for both a Gen Zer and 50+ woman, nor will the same channel work. Understanding where the intended audience engages with media, what is important to them and how to speak to them—which might include multiple languages—is key.
  • Retailers and brands should take time to get to know these underserved markets, as the US has changed significantly in the last two decades. We suggest brands and retailers engage in quantitative surveys and focus groups, speaking to today’s beauty shoppers. By learning their values, demands and concerns, companies can better develop products and communication strategies that recognize and address the needs of these groups.

Notes and Methodology

Data for 2017–2021 in Figure 1 are Euromonitor data: Euromonitor International Limited 2022 © All rights reserved

Coresight Research surveys US consumers aged 18+ online each week. Informing the data in this report are our two surveys conducted on May 15 (400 respondents) and May 22 (400 respondents). The results have a margin of error of +/- 5%, with a 95% confidence level.

Two additional Coresight Research surveys, from earlier in the year, also inform the data in this report:

  • An online survey of 91 women aged 18–45, conducted on February 27, 2023. The results have a margin of error +/-10%, at a 95% confidence level.
  • An online survey of 400 US women aged 50 and above, conducted on February 20, 2023. The results have a margin of error of +/-5%, at a 95% confidence level.

The composition of 50+ female respondents in the second survey was as follows:

  • Age—38% aged 50–59; 37% aged 60–69; 25% aged 70+
  • Household Income—48% under $50,000; 30% between $50,000 and $100,000; 16% over $100,000 (the remaining respondents chose not to disclose their income bracket)

In addition to the findings discussed in this report, our survey revealed other differences within the 50+ women by income, as shown in Methodology Figure 1.

Methodology Figure 1. 50+ Women: High-Income Trends

All 50+ Women 50+ Women with Household Income of $100,000+
In a long-term relationship 48% 78%
Working full-time 23% 46%
Living in the suburbs 49% 68%
Social security is primary income source 45% 15%
Base: 400 women aged 50+, surveyed in February 2023
Source: Coresight Research

 

Appendix: About the Coresight Research RESET Framework

The Coresight Research RESET framework for change in retail serves as a call to action for retail companies to respond to short-term consumer needs while securing longer-term success. The framework aggregates the retail trends that our analysts identify as meaningful for 2023 and beyond, as well as our recommendations to capitalize on those trends, around five areas of evolution. To remain relevant and stand equipped for change, we urge retailers to be Responsive, Engaging, Socially responsible, Expansive and Tech-enabled. Emphasizing the need for consumer-centricity, the consumer sits at the center of this framework, with their preferences, behaviors and choices demanding those changes.

RESET was ideated as a means to aggregate more than a dozen of our identified retail trends into a higher-level framework. The framework enhances accessibility, serving as an entry point into the longer list of more specific trends that we think should be front of mind for retail companies as they seek to maintain relevance. Retailers can dive into these trends as they cycle through the RESET framework.

The components of RESET serve as a template for approaching adaptation in retail. Companies can consolidate processes such as the identification of opportunities, internal capability reviews, competitor analysis and implementation of new processes and competencies around these RESET segments.

Through 2023, our research will assist retailers in understanding the drivers of evolution in retail and managing the resulting processes of adaptation. The RESET framework’s constituent trends will form a pillar of our research and analysis, with our analysts dedicated to exploring these trends in detail. Readers will see this explainer and the RESET framework identifier on further reports as we continue that coverage.

 

Appendix Figure 1. RESET Framework

Source: Coresight Research

Introduction

A major challenge for retailers globally remains retail theft and fraud, which severely impact profitability and appear to be increasing at an alarming rate. In the US, recent headlines list shoplifting-related store closures in cities including Chicago, San Francisco and New York City.

In this report, we explore the current and future technologies available to retailers for preventing and reducing shrink. We primarily focus on the US retail environment, although the technologies we explore are applicable globally.

This report is sponsored by Sensormatic, a global leader in retail systems, including radio-frequency identification (RFID), electronic article surveillance (EAS), anti-theft tags and labels, detachers, inventory management and retail traffic solutions.

Market Scale and Opportunity

Retail shrink amounted to $94.5 billion in 2021, up 4.1% from $90.8 billion in 2022, according to the September 2022 Retail Security Survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The shrink rate was 1.4% of sales, which has remained consistent over the past five years. Although it is facile to conflate shrink with theft—and this report will likely make the same generalization for convenience, the NRF found that the two biggest sources of shrink in 2021 were theft-related—organized retail crime (ORC) and employee/internal theft—which accounted for a combined 65.5% of all shrink, as shown in Figure 1.

Furthermore, surveyed retailers saw a 26.5% year-over-year increase in ORC incidents. Even more alarming, four in five surveyed retailers reported violence and aggression associated with ORC incidents, according to the NRF.

Figure 1. Inventory Shrink by Source, 2021

 

Source: US Census Bureau/NRF

 

However, dated industry shrink figures do not do justice to retail companies’ current concerns around shrink and do not account for the recent surge in shoplifting.

Target CEO Brian Cornell, in an interview following the retailer’s 1Q24 (first quarter of fiscal 2024) earnings release, stated that shrink would reduce its full-year profitability by $500 million in 2023. Based on reported 2022 figures, we estimate that shrink reduced gross profit by $753 million in 2022, representing a shrink rate of nearly 3%—far exceeding the NRF figure.

Apart from the social causes (which are beyond the scope of this report), the rash of shoplifting has been fueled by high felony larceny thresholds, difficulties in prosecuting offenders and an increase in ORC. With police not responding to misdemeanor larceny complaints (i.e., with total theft generally below $1,000—and thieves know this), retailers need help to file a felony complaint. Many retailers do not pursue thieves due to the perceived damage to their image and reputations from the unsightly process of detaining a thief.

Many retailers have responded by locking up merchandise, which Dollar Tree recently termed “defensive merchandising,” or by closing stores completely.

A picture containing indoor, bottle, plastic, blue Description automatically generated

Items locked up at New York City drugstore
Source: Coresight Research

 

These measures are likely to have an effect on consumers. A recent Coresight Research survey asked US consumers about their opinions of retail in the current shoplifting-prevalent environment (see the Methodology for more details) and found that:

  • 48% of consumers are concerned (extremely, very or moderately) that stores serving their community may be closed due to retailers experiencing high levels of theft.
  • 26% would shop elsewhere and 26% would move online if their local store put items under lock and key.
  • 75% are concerned (moderately to extremely) that retailers will raise prices to cover the cost of increasing retail theft.
  • 77% are concerned (moderately to extremely) with the ability of their local governments to enforce the law.

Retailers are highly motivated to reduce losses and alleviate their customers’ concerns about shopping in their stores.

Loss-Prevention Technologies: Coresight Research Analysis

We identify five key technologies that can drive benefits for retailers in preventing loss, as we outline in Figure 2 and discuss in detail below.

Figure 2. Loss-Prevention Technologies and Benefits

Source: Coresight Research

 

1. Item Tags Give Retailers the What, When and Where of Theft and Fraud

The quote, “you can’t manage what you can’t measure” attributed to management thinker Peter Drucker rings true in loss prevention, especially with regard to the sources of shrink provided in Figure 1. Shrink represents unaccounted-for inventory, which must be counted in the first place.

Item tags enable retailers to ensure inventory accuracy, which is the precondition for popular services such as ship-from-store, curbside pickup and BOPIS (buy online, pick up in-store). Inventory accuracy also enables better control of pricing and minimizes working capital stranded in inventory.

Types of Item Tags

There are several item-tagging technologies, which generally comprise a tag (some type of item identification) plus a means of detection.

  • EAS—Acousto-magnetic tags are clamped on to products in a store and set off alarms when they pass through reader antennas stationed at the store entrance. Sensormatic is a provider of these types of tags.

AM Alarming 2 Tone SuperTag Pin | Sensormatic

Acousto-magnetic tag
Source: Avery Dennison

 

  • Internet of Things (IoT)—These tags can include radio transmitters such as Bluetooth or 5G wireless, which transmit identity and whose location can be determined. Qualcomm has provided a 5G reference design for tags that access cellular networks. Israeli innovator Deeyook Technology offers a tracker that can determine an item’s location based on Wi-Fi or LTE (long-term evolution)/5G wireless signals.

A close-up of a white device Description automatically generated with low confidence

5G IoT Tracker
Source: Qualcomm

 

  • RFID—These tags comprise a chip-antenna module activated by electromagnetic energy, which then retransmits the item’s data to provide identification. A matrix of RFID antennas can triangulate on an item to show its location and movement. Providers of RFID tags, readers and antennas include Arizon Taiwan, Avery Dennison, Checkpoint Systems, HID Global, Honeywell, Impinj, Invengo, Nedap Retail, NXP Semiconductors, Sensormatic, SML Group, STMicroelectronics and Zebra Technologies.

AD-172u7 | Avery Dennison | RFID

RFID tag
Source: Sensormatic

 

RFID for Loss Prevention

RFID tags offer a low-cost, flexible solution for inventory management and loss prevention due to their ability to provide identity and location data. For loss-prevention efforts, RFID tags provide three key pieces of information:

  • The item’s identification and location—Each RFID tag includes an electronic data capture (EDC) identification code, which uniquely identifies an item by its SKU (stock keeping unit) and item number. With an RFID reader, retailers can know which items are in the store as well as their general location. Associates are able to find an item quickly by searching with a reader device—i.e., using the “Geiger counter” mode in which the device beeps more rapidly as they approach the item. This ability to find items is a major contributor to customer and associate satisfaction, since the consumer does not have to wait while the associate searches through piles of merchandise in the stockroom.
  • The item’s movement (crossing a boundary)—RFID antennas inside the store can show the movement of an item within its bounds, and antennas positioned above entrances and exits can identify items’ entry or exit from the store. A departure via the front door could represent a purchase or customer theft, whereas a departure via the back door could represent an employee theft. Passive RFID tags (which are lower in cost than active tags and represent the majority) typically have a range of less than 30 feet, so their usefulness largely ends when an item has left the store.
  • The item’s existence or absence—If an item resides within the store, the RFID antennas will pick it up; conversely, if an item has been initially scanned but no longer appears to be within the store, then the item can be classified as missing. The inventory tracking system will take notice if a consumer attempts to return an unsold item previously marked as missing.

RFID tags enable retailers to know the following in the event of theft and fraud: which items were taken, the time and date, and whether they left via the front or the back door. These data can be used to find patterns to identify causes of shrink and take action against shrink, such as by modifying the presentation or location of products within the store; retailers can better understand which items are stolen the most, which SKUs in which quantities and at what times of day. For example, unpaid items leaving the store before opening or after closing likely indicate a case of employee theft. Just as important, the store knows the value of the items taken, which is relevant in potentially building a felony case when the value of the items passes the relevant threshold.

Figure 3. The Application of RFID in a Retail Store

A diagram of a store Description automatically generated with low confidence

Source: Coresight Research

 

RFID tags can also enhance the customer experience. For example, retailer Uniqlo is using RFID tags for self-checkout, where the items to be purchased are placed in a bin (which includes an RFID reader) that automatically scans the items. When the consumer checks out, pays and leaves the store, the inventory view is updated right away.

U-Scan Mini-Express RFID - Fujitsu Frontech North America

RFID self-checkout terminal
Source: Fujitsu Frontech North America

 

RFID chips from Impinj that use the RAIN standard (derived from Radio-frequency IdentificatioN) offer a “protected mode,” whereby the tags can be made “invisible” to readers (for example, once the item has been purchased) and therefore do not trigger loss-prevention actions when the customer leaves the store; the tag can simply be reactivated in the case of a return. Newer Impinj chips can contain encrypted data that can only be read by a reader with chips that contain the decryption code, which enables them to ensure the privacy of the data saved in the chip.

It is not strictly true that thieves can use aluminum foil to block RFID signals, although metallic conductors do absorb electromagnetic radiation; tinfoil only blocks RFID at long distances. A Faraday cage would block all electromagnetic fields, yet such a device is likely beyond the capabilities of most shoplifters. Still, retailers need to be aware of materials including metals, water, concrete and leather and more (even paint) when designing stores and backrooms to ensure that their antennas are able to cover the retail space.

Traditional EAS technology can also identify measures to thwart detection hardware. The figure below includes a matrix of video images, with the upper right-hand image showing an alert indicating the detection of a metal-foil alarm—i.e., the customer has entered the store with a foil-lined bag designed to defeat EAS systems.

Video matrix of security cameras and alerts
Source: Coresight Research

 

2. Video Gives Retailers the Who, When and Where of Theft and Fraud

As a picture is worth a thousand words, video provides the essential missing piece to a loss-protection platform, providing an image of the suspected thief, along with an idea of what they are carrying, plus the date and time.

The Power of Tags x Video

The combination of “what, when and where” from item tags with “who, when and where” from video provides a clear picture of what was taken, when and by what exit, with an image of the perpetrator, and multiple incidents of the same individual can be combined to file a felony larceny with law enforcement once the relevant thresholds have been exceeded.

Other Powerful Capabilities of Video

The combination of video and the powerful capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) enables the detection of many types of human behavior, many of which may not be apparent to the person observed. The capabilities of Sensormatic’s video retail platform include the detection/analysis of:

  • Loitering—Computer video can detect customers spending long periods in stores without making a purchase or returning to the store multiple times, which suggest that they are determining the store’s layout and points of weakness.
  • Gait—The walking speed of legitimate shoppers is more leisurely—they stroll more slowly than potential shoplifters, who tend to move more rapidly through the store.
  • Traffic—Video analytics can measure store traffic and traffic patterns, which can be used to deploy inventory in ways that discourage theft.
  • Shelf Sweep/Inventory—Computer video can detect when a suspected thief sweeps an entire shelf of product into a bag to carry out of the store, as well as monitor inventory.

Protecting Associates and Customers

Protecting customers, associates and the store represents a major component of loss prevention, and the above capabilities of AI and video enable platforms to detect and alert store employees of emerging threats and dangers, including the following:

  • Parking-lot activity—Video platforms collect data for loss-prevention and customer-satisfaction purposes, including reading license plates, identifying cars parked in a dangerous manner or for long periods of time, or recognizing the formation of mobs intent on robbing the store. In addition, video can monitor the number of cars in the parking lot or wait times to ensure optimal BOPIS service.
  • Gunshots—A gunshot produces a unique audio profile, and detection software can alert associates to notify authorities or lock down the store.
  • Threatening behavior—Video analytics can identify dangerous customer behavior such as shouting, slamming items down onto counters or wild gestures and alert associates to monitor the potential threat.

Issues Surrounding Facial Recognition

The use of facial-recognition software in loss prevention typically raises significant concern regarding privacy among US residents, although the technology is being used and accepted in other countries. Walmart had reportedly been using facial recognition to identify known shoplifters but dropped its use following privacy complaints, yet the company is the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging that it used the facial-recognition database of Clearview AI in Illinois.

There are signs that the objections of US residents to facial recognition could be easing: the technology is finding use in other sectors such as aviation—airlines and the US Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) are now using it for identity verification at the security checkpoint and boarding gate. The technology has also been the standard for identifying consumers in several generations of Apple iPhones.

Consumers are also accepting other forms of biometric identification. For example, Panera Bread is testing the Amazon One hand-scanning application in its restaurants in St. Louis, Missouri. Consumers are also possibly more comfortable with the term “biometric identification” than “facial recognition.”

3. Self-Checkout Terminals Offer Consumers a World of Convenience and Thieves New Ways to Steal

Self-checkout terminals offer a boost in efficiency and self-reliance for many consumers, as it enables them to check out faster and take control of the process. Still, every new technology opens the door to new ways for miscreants to exploit their weaknesses, which creates a need for solutions to address them. Leading SCO vendors include Diebold Nixdorf, Fujitsu NCR and Toshiba.

Figure 4 shows selected theft and fraud risks through the basic self-checkout process. Devious minds will be able to imagine even more ways to circumvent even the best security measures.

Figure 4. Simplified Self-Checkout Process: Risks of Loss, Theft and Fraud

Source: Coresight Research

 

Current self-checkout terminals contain several sensors and measures to reduce theft and fraud, including scales and cameras. Figure 5 contains an annotated self-checkout terminal, the elements of which we discuss below.

Figure 5. Annotated Self-Checkout Terminal

Source: NCR/Coresight Research

 

Downward-facing camera. The downward-facing camera enables loss-prevention officers to catch theft and fraud that happens outside the front-facing camera’s field of view, such as transferring items directly into the customer’s bag. It also leverages AI to catch mis-scanning, product switching, leaving items in the basket and leaving items in the cart. The module contains an indicator light to signify the need for customer assistance, or a potential theft/fraud situation.

Item scanner/front-facing camera. This assembly includes two sensors: the item scanner on the bottom and the one facing the customer, which includes a camera that can identify products and labels, as well as monitor the customer’s activity. These images are used for pick-list assistance (for example, specifying which type of apple scanned) and product assurance. Although the video feed is not necessarily monitored by a loss-prevention associate in real time, it can be recorded, and the message “you are on video” serves to deter some would-be thieves.

Scale in bagging area. The scale performs a very important function, comparing the incremental weight of an item to the weight that is averaged over time in a database of products the retailer sells. The divergence of an item’s actual weight compared to a baseline (within a certain tolerance) could represent a case of label-switching. The weakness of this method is that this average can be corrupted through misuse or error to abuse the system.

Cameras in self-checkout systems can also leverage AI for purposes such as age verification for the purchase of alcohol and tobacco.

4. AI-Based Analytics Use Automation and Computing Power To Identify Theft, Fraud and Waste

Not all effective loss-prevention technology requires item tags or computer-video data. There is a great deal of valuable information embedded in everyday inventory and POS (point-of-sale) data that can be extracted using automation and the ability of AI to identify hidden relationships within data.

We summarize the capabilities of AI as the following:

  • Harnessing enormous amounts of computing power
  • Finding (often hidden) relationships among data
  • Determining the best model or algorithm to make predictions
  • Unlocking the benefits of automation

Prescriptive Analytics Continuously Scans Store Data for Theft and Fraud, Waste and Noncompliance

Analytics platforms such as Zebra Prescriptive Analytics monitor data to determine a baseline, normal level for certain data items, which are used to detect anomalies. Many of these forms of theft and fraud can be detected in the checkout process—the difference here is that this is a software-powered solution. Examples of these anomalies include:

  • High shrink—Unusually high shrink levels could indicate issues with shipment, theft or fraud.
  • Sweethearting—Refers to employees giving items to friends and family for free or at a reduced price (a “sweetheart” deal)
  • Sliding—When an associate slides a product over a scanner while obscuring the barcode so that it is not registered
  • Illegal voids, markdowns or discounts—Scanning items and quickly voiding the transaction or price tag switching conducted by a store employee
  • Cash refunds—Issuing improper refunds from the store’s own inventory in cash
  • Training mode—Switching the POS to “training” mode, in which transactions are not linked to the cash in the drawer
  • Return fraud—Customers can attempt to receive refunds for items taken off the store shelf, or buy a product legitimately and try to return a cheaper product, making a profit in the price differential.

In each of the above examples, a baseline is established where data from the attempted fraudulent transaction is outside of normal bounds and generates an alert for further inspection.

Figure 6. Overview of Types of Theft and Fraud That AI Can Detect

Source: Coresight Research

 

Prescriptive analytics also helps retailers identify hidden revenue opportunities, sources of waste and noncompliance, and inventory imbalances, such as the availability of goods in the stockroom but not on the store shelf, which is a highly sensitive area of customer satisfaction.

Other Uses of AI Today

AI is in practice today in several other applications, including the following:

  • Online fraud detection—Companies such as Signifyd and Riskified use AI to identify fraudulent online orders and, more importantly, verify legitimate customers and orders in a speedy manner so as not to generate unnecessary friction.
  • Cybersecurity—Cybercriminals and ransomware installers relentlessly seek access to complex corporate networks and are employing AI-based tools to invade networks. Many of these hackers gain access with standard network-administration tools, which would not appear as malware, and network operators possess an ever-shrinking window within which to interpret the faint signals these attacks generate to launch a response. Since many attackers are employing automated, AI-based tools, retailers would be well served to “fight fire with fire” and employ similar technologies in their defense, as described in our report offering key points from the 2023 RSA cybersecurity conference.

5. Generative AI Could Offer New, Innovative Ways To Catch the Bad Guys

While generative AI technology has been years in the making, the technology made a splash in November 2022, with OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT (based on GPT-3.5), and GPT-4 is already available. The early capabilities of the platform include its ability to answer questions in natural language and summarize and generate text. Since ChatGPT’s launch, several global technology vendors have announced the addition of GPT functionality to their platforms, including Google, Microsoft and Salesforce.

The combination of natural-language processing (NLP) and the ability to find connections among large amounts of data means that generative AI could be a powerful, flexible tool for retailers, with these strengths enabling it to replace many dedicated software platforms. Moreover, this flexibility could enable it to create solutions in short order—a major benefit for retailers—since new forms of theft and fraud can emerge quickly and be spread quickly by social media, and software platforms need time to be written, debugged and tested.

At this early stage, we can speculate on likely applications of generative AI, including the following:

  • Finding patterns in theft and fraud data, such as which items were taken and when
  • Predicting theft and fraud times
  • Predicting new items targeted by thieves
  • Finding new patterns in POS and self-checkout data
  • Determining optimal store layouts to reduce theft
  • Analyzing and finding patterns in ORC behavior

Again, with AI chatbots, loss-prevention employees can ask questions in plain language, and the AI finds patterns, which can be queried and refined, which provides a more interactive experience than fixed reports and dashboards. At the time of this report’s writing, no loss-prevention vendors have announced products leveraging generative AI; however, the advanced ones are likely experimenting with it, and it is only a matter of time before new products and capabilities are announced.

What We Think

The criminal mind is constantly looking for new opportunities to receive ill-gotten gains, and unfortunately, retailers need to remain vigilant and implement new means of thwarting them. Fortunately, there are several technologies that can help retailers reduce the risk of shrink or at least identify theft and fraud where it is not possible to prevent or stop it. The combination of the watchful eye of video cameras plus the ever-increasing capabilities of AI offers new, powerful ways to identify behavior that suggests the intention to shoplift, enabling retailers to spook or shame would-be thieves to lose their nerve. AI’s ability to use computing power to find hidden relationships in data enables retailers to identify theft and fraud not visible to the human eye. Finally, the power of generative AI unlocks a great deal of analytical power and flexibility, which can be ready to identify and prevent new and clever means of theft and fraud.

Implications for Brands/Retailers

  • RFID tags are a mature yet shunned technology that offer retailers a wealth of data that can identify which items were taken, at which time and via which exit, and these data are valuable for building a loss-prevention case as well as maintaining inventory accuracy.
  • Retailers and brands should remain informed as to the latest loss-prevention capabilities of self-checkout due to the avenues for theft and fraud they create.
  • AI-fueled prescriptive analytics analyzes POS and inventory data to identify theft and fraud, in addition to hidden revenue and other opportunities to increase efficiency and compliance.
  • AI-powered computer video enables retailers to analyze consumer behavior to identify potential threats, safety issues and offers other capabilities such as inventory tracking.
  • Generative AI promises to unlock the power of AI to find relationships in data and store information in new, previously unimagined ways.

Implications for Real Estate Firms

  • Retailers and landlords will need to reconsider retail spaces and entry points, reconfiguring them to make them more resistant to shoplifting and robberies such as “smash and grabs.” Landlords also need to fortify walls between stores to prevent break-ins from less well-defended neighboring stores.

Implications for Technology Vendors

  • Vendors can combine loss prevention, inventory visibility and store analytics in one broad-based, store operations platform.
  • AI-based video analytics is a powerful tool for analyzing customer behavior in the store and could potentially identify shoplifters before they steal and discourage (or shame) them into backing off, or alert store employees.
  • The power and capabilities of AI—especially generative AI—continues to increase and offers opportunities for developers of software platforms and applications.

Methodology

Informing the data in this report is an online survey of 401 US consumers aged 18+, conducted by Coresight Research on April 17, 2023. The results have a margin of error of +/- 5%, with a 95% confidence interval.

Reasons to Read

Retail shrink is a prevalent challenge, severely impacting profitability for retailers. To combat all types of losses and protect their business (including associates) and profits, more retailers are turning to innovative technology solution providers for the answers.

We present selected companies globally that provide loss-prevention and related risk-reducing solutions across the retail industry.

Categories covered in this landscape are:

  • AI-based fraud protection
  • Associate protection
  • Inventory management
  • Self-checkout
  • Video surveillance and analytics

Companies mentioned in this report include: Auror, Dropit, HYPR, Identiq, Radar, Senitron, Sentry AI, Sift, Simbe, Standard AI, Trigo

Our landscape infographic summarizes the companies outlined in this report.

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

Our weekly Earnings Insights reports feature highlights from recent management commentary from major US retailers within our Coresight 100 coverage list as they report first-quarter 2023 earnings.

This week, there are highlights from companies that reported in the week ended June 4, 2023, across five sectors: apparel and footwear, department stores, discount stores, luxury and specialty apparel. 

Data in this report are:

  • Quarterly data from companies, including gross margins and sales data by brand (where applicable), channel and geography

Companies mentioned in this report include: Capri Holdings, Dollar General, Five Below, Lululemon Athletica, Macy’s, Nordstrom and PVH Corp

Other relevant research: 

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Reasons to Read

The Coresight Research weekly US Consumer Tracker takes a regular temperature check on US consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

In this report, we present findings from our survey conducted on May 29, 2023.

Data in this research report are our latest proprietary survey findings and four-week changes for:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of and reactions to inflation
  • Avoidance of public places, by type of public place
  • Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks
  • Which retailers consumers have bought food and nonfood products from in the last two weeks
  • What products consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks

Companies mentioned in this research report include: Aldi, Amazon, Albertsons, Ahold Delhaize, Costco, Dollar General, Dollar Tree/Family Dollar, Kohl’s, Kroger, Macy’s, Target, Walmart

Other relevant research: 

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Reasons to Read

The Coresight Research weekly China Consumer Tracker takes a regular temperature check on Chinese consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

In this research report, we present findings from our survey conducted on May 22, 2023.

Data in this research report are our latest proprietary survey data for:

  • Attitudes to sustainable fashion, purchasing rates and willingness to pay more, broken down by age and geography
  • Avoidance of public places, by type of public place—latest data and one-and four-week PPT changes
  • Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks
  • What products consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks
  • Expectations for economic conditions and personal finances in the next 12 months

Other relevant research:

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