Reasons to Read

The US Store Tracker Extra monthly series offers insights into retailers’ store closure and opening announcements and details on closures and openings as a percentage of total store base and square-footage impact. This report also offers a comparison between year-to-date announced closures and openings, as of February 24, 2023, versus the comparable period in 2022.

Data in this report are:

  • Year-to-date announced US store closures and openings estimates for 2023, by retailer
  • Year-to-date announced 2023 US store closures and openings estimates in gross square feet, by retailer
  • US announced store closures and openings: week-by-week comparison of 2023 versus 2022

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Bed Bath & Beyond, Hobby Lobby, Macy’s and Whole Foods Market

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We discuss the growth and competitive landscape of DNVBs (digitally native vertical brands, also sometimes called direct-to-consumer, or DTC, brands) in the US beauty market—including trends that brands are leveraging to better serve this market and capitalize on its opportunities.

Data in this report include:

  • DNVBs—total sales in the US beauty market, and year-over-year growth, 2019–2027E
  • DNVBs’ share of the total US beauty market, 2019–2027E
  • Gross margins of selected beauty brands in their most recent fiscal years
  • Most recent round of funding by selected US DNVBs in beauty

Companies mentioned in this report include: Beauty Pie, Charlotte Tilbury, Drunk Elephant, e.l.f. Beauty, Estée Lauder, Fenty Beauty, Hero Cosmetics, Huda Beauty, L’Oréal, Madison Reed, Trinny London, True Botanicals, Tula

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With central banks continuing to tackle still-elevated inflation in a number of regions, interest-rate decisions form the biggest known inflection points in the global economy in 2023.

In this report, we provide a macro calendar of developments, with a focus on the US, the UK, China and the EU (European Union).

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Introduction

Succeeding in grocery retail is becoming increasingly difficult amid stiff competition and thinning profit margins due to the rise in e-commerce. It has become more important than ever for retailers to own and manage their end-to-end operations effectively. Moreover, consumers today are interested in new, innovative digital experiences focused on convenience and personalization. Grocery retailers need to focus on effectively deploying technologies that enhance the omnichannel shopping experience and connect shoppers with personalized ads, loyalty programs, coupons, digital shopping lists and advertisements.

With the increasing prevalence of omnichannel, it is imperative for retailers to meet shoppers across all touchpoints while ensuring consistent and unforgettable experiences. Retailers are increasingly turning to technology solution providers to bolster their digital presence.

In this report, we discuss five key strategies for grocery retailers to win customers while ensuring long-term retention, with a focus on using first-party data to drive personalization.

This report is sponsored by Swiftly, a US-based retail technology solution provider that offers retail tools, mobile platforms, analytics tools and a retail media network, enabling retailers to accelerate sales and build loyalty while enabling brands to reach more shoppers and amplify campaigns using the power of first-party data.

Market Scale and Opportunity

Coresight Research estimates that the US grocery retail market will grow at a CAGR of 3.3% between 2022 and 2030, reaching $1.9 trillion, presenting a huge opportunity for grocery retailers. The online channel is set to outpace total sales, growing at a CAGR of 8.4% in the same period, to $147.2 billion, we estimate.

Figure 1. US: Grocery Retail Market Size (Left; USD Bil.) and Online Food Retail Market Size (Right; USD Bil.)

Chart, waterfall chart Description automatically generated

Grocery retail market size includes sales of all products by food retailers and grocery sales of selected major mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs and discount stores
Source: IRI E-Market Insights™/Coresight Research

 

While stores are the go-to destination for grocery purchases, retailers are not undermining the potential opportunity that grocery e-commerce presents. We believe that inflationary pressure will continue to fuel omnichannel commerce as cost-conscious shoppers seek the best value across shopping channels—both online and offline—which increases the need for a seamless and connected shopper experience.

However, while online grocery sales continue to rise, the significance of physical retail stores cannot be undermined. US-based e-commerce giant Amazon opened its first physical grocery retail outlet in August 2020 and has focused on expanding the format since—opening 40 stores across the US.

We believe that grocery retailers should focus on building an omnichannel strategy that is streamlined and effective at every customer touchpoint.

Five Strategies for Success in US Grocery E-Commerce: Coresight Research x Swiftly Analysis

We present five strategies for retailers in the US grocery market in Figure 2 and explore each in detail below.

Figure 2. Five Strategies for Success in US Grocery E-Commerce

Source: Coresight Research

 

1. Offer a Seamless Omnichannel Shopping Experience to Customers

Consumers are using multiple channels to purchase and research products, plan their shopping lists and find the best savings. They gravitate toward retailers that provide a seamless and convenient shopping experience by carefully integrating online and offline channels and offering a digitized in-store shopping experience.

To succeed in today’s retail environment, retailers must offer a frictionless omnichannel shopping experience for customers that allows them to select the channel that best suits the purchase occasion––in-store, mobile app or website. By taking an omnichannel approach, grocery retailers can connect with customers and offer personalized experiences through the shopping journey. They can also attract and influence customers at the point of sale, where final purchasing decisions are made. This enables retailers to increase their share of customers’ wallets, which is critical as most grocery retailers operate with slim margins. According to a survey conducted by Symphony RetailAI of 421 million baskets purchased in the US and Europe in the first quarter of 2021, omnichannel shoppers shop more frequently and spend up to 20% more than in-store-only shoppers.

As part of an omnichannel approach, grocery retailers can implement multiple store-based strategies that leverage advanced technologies to remain ahead of their competition. These include, but are not limited to, endless-aisle solutions, which allow shoppers to purchase any product in a retailers’ online catalog for home delivery when they cannot find those products in the physical store. In addition, retailers can offer a truly blended omnichannel experience and increase customer loyalty by having an integrated mobile platform that offers personalized content to shoppers—such as product recommendations and promotions—based on their location.

Digital sign on refrigerator case in grocery

In-store digital signage
Source: Spectrio

 

For small and medium-sized companies looking to catch up with the competition and gain greater market share in the future, partnerships with third-party technology providers such as Swiftly present a key opportunity to integrate online and in-store experiences and offer connected shopping experiences to their customers. According to Henry Kim, CEO of Swiftly, as the retail industry rapidly consolidates and consumers continue to struggle with rising costs, retailers need to act now to solidify digital customer relationships and build new margin-rich revenue streams. He highlighted that Amazon and Walmart are continuing to put pressure on retailers through innovation and the introduction of advanced technologies.

Gain Full Control of the Customer Relationship

We think that, in the long term, retailers will focus on building their own end-to-end capabilities to own the customer relationship. This is important because it enables retailers to control their messaging and brand image across the entire customer journey, from product discovery to delivery to returns, as well as offer a seamless shopping experience via their own websites and mobile apps.

  • US-based grocery retailer The Save Mart Companies (TSMC) partnered with Swiftly in December 2021 to improve its existing mobile application. According to the CMO of TSMC, the improved user-friendly app provides an integrated loyalty and e-commerce experience designed to make the shopping experience even more convenient.

While partnering with third-party delivery companies has the upside of not missing out on order volume to competitors, the downside is that it costs retailers end-to-end control over the customer relationship. For instance, with delivery partnerships, any negative experience (such as delays) that are outside of the retailer’s control can be detrimental to their relationship with the customer. Additionally, third-party delivery companies charge high commission on every order they fulfill—which can be 8%–12% of the transaction value, leading to deep cuts into retailers’ profit margins.

Larger retailers realize this and have taken steps to gain full control. For example, Walmart has focused on owning the last mile through its Spark Driver delivery platform and InHome delivery service. We believe that it is equally important for retailers of a smaller size and scale to take control of the end-to-end customer relationship, including the last mile.

3. Collect and Manage First-Party Customer Data

A critical component for retailers in gaining control of the customer relationship is the collection and management of first-party customer data. The importance of owning first-party customer data has increased due to the tightening of consumer privacy laws and the gradual phase-out of third-party cookies. For example, Google plans to phase out third-party cookies in its Chrome web browser in 2024.

First-party data can be a retailer’s most valuable resource in driving customer loyalty if collected, managed, and used effectively. This is because, collected directly from consumers, such data are reliable and enable retailers to generate accurate and unique customer insights that can help create a more seamless and personalized shopping experience. By tailoring the shopping journey—including marketing—based on customer data, retailers can improve conversion rates and increase the likelihood that customers will make repeat purchases.

  • During an interview with CNBC in September 2022, Yael Cosset, Senior VP and CIO at Kroger, said that the retailer is leveraging data to engage with customers across its digital channels, including apps, and websites to make relevant customer interactions and offer personalized shopping experiences.

According to a Coresight Research survey of US-based executives whose organizations use first-party data for marketing, conducted in November 2021, driving sales (online) is the topmost benefit of using first-party data—cited by more than half of all respondents (see Figure 3). While driving sales is the topmost benefit, sharing targeted information (promotions, etc.) and building brand recognition can help retailers reap higher conversion rates and a larger average basket size from a more loyal customer base.

Figure 3. Benefits of Using First-Party Data (% of Respondents)

Chart, bar chart Description automatically generated

Base: 142 US-based executives (managing omnichannel operations) whose organizations use first-party data for marketing purposes
Source: Coresight Research

 

Retailers can capture some data through loyalty programs in third-party delivery apps (which we discuss further in the next section), but access is limited, resulting in a less-than-complete picture of the consumer. Third-party companies, on the other hand, can collect information on what shoppers are searching for, orders that are added to the cart, the number of times items are added and what was placed in the cart but not purchased.

This level of customer insight positions delivery companies well to present direct competition for brick-and-mortar grocery retailers, with extensive knowledge of shopper behavior and the ability to personalize the purchasing and delivery process. For example, DoorDash and UK-based food and grocery delivery company Deliveroo have each opened brick-and-mortar grocery stores—in August 2020 and October 2022, respectively.

The growing quick-commerce market is seeing vast amounts of customer data being made available to third-party delivery companies, driving the imperative for retailers to find the right balance between partnerships and establishing their own sources of first-party data.

4. Leverage First-Party Data To Optimize Loyalty Programs and Drive Personalization

Succeeding with long-term customer retention requires brands and retailers to offer a seamless and personalized shopping experience. However, there is a gap between brands’/retailers’ perception of their personalization capabilities versus how consumers perceive them. For example, around seven in 10 (71%) brands and retailers based in the US and the UK think they excel in marketing personalization, but only 34% of consumers agree, according to recent Coresight Research survey findings.

Figure 4. Areas of Personalization in Which Brands/Retailers and Consumers Believe Brands and Retailers Excel (% of Respondents)

Chart Description automatically generated

Base: 5,014 US and UK consumers and 260 US and UK brands and retailers, surveyed in October 2021
Source: Coresight Research

 

The key to effective—targeted, tailored and timely—personalization lies in how well retailers can use their first-party data to draw insights. Loyalty programs are a key source of first-party data, which grocery retailers can leverage to tailor offers and promotions and therefore increase customer loyalty and basket size.

Additionally, retailers should focus on leveraging all data available to continue to improve their loyalty programs. When used effectively, purchase data, for example, can help retailers optimize their tiered loyalty programs and improve promotion targeting. There are two primary ways in which retailers can effectively leverage first-party purchase data:

  1. Having an integrated approach to data collection from various sources such as retailer apps/websites, POS (point-of-sale) systems and, in some cases, in-store beacons enable retailers to draw unified insights in real time that can strengthen their promotion and marketing management.
  2. Having a single view of the customer through data from multiple sources can help retailers make more informed and effective decisions and yield better shopper targeting.

We believe that grocery retailers that own and manage proprietary customer data can derive better insights about shopper behavior that allow them to build personalized loyalty programs, which can boost sales. According to a Coresight Research survey conducted in March 2022, almost half of US consumers who are members of a retail loyalty program reported that they now spend more with that retailer than before they joined its loyalty program—indicating the revenue-generating opportunity of loyalty programs for retailers.

Figure 5. US Consumers with a Loyalty Program Membership: Changes in Spending Levels Since Joining a Loyalty Program (% of Respondents)

Chart, bar chart Description automatically generated

Base: 329 US respondents aged 18+ who are members of a retail loyalty program, surveyed in March 2022
Source: Coresight Research

Retailers should continue to mine data from loyalty programs to understand, segment and reward their customers, including fine-tuning personalized recommendations based on their interests.

5. Build Customer-Centric Retail Media Capabilities

Retailers can use first-party data and customer loyalty data to increase personalization in retail media—a form of advertising where brands utilize retailers’ digital and physical channels to showcase their products and increase revenue. Expanding their retail media capabilities adds a high-margin advertising business to grocery retailers’ revenue streams, providing an innovative way to combat declining profit margins amid rising delivery and fulfillment costs fueled by labor shortages, inflation and supply chain issues. Providing a more targeted retail media experience can drive a higher return on ad spend (ROAS) for brand partners, allowing grocery retailers to command higher advertising rates—i.e., CPM (cost per mille [per thousand impressions]).

  • US-based retailer Dollar Tree’s Family Dollar brand partnered with Swiftly in April 2021 to launch its retail media business, Chesapeake Media Group. The retail media business allows CPG brands to utilize onsite and offsite retail media to reach targeted customers. The onsite platform enables advertisers to use dynamic ad placements, sponsored searches and product recommendation tools.
  • In 2021, Amazon and Walmart reported global retail advertising revenues of $32.1 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively, highlighting the huge market for retail advertising.

Coresight Research estimates that the global retail media industry was worth $75.1 billion in 2022, up 80.1% year over year.

What We Think

Grocery retailers that offer omnichannel shopping experiences to customers, and are constantly investing in advanced technologies focused on offering seamless shopping experiences for customers, are likely to emerge as winners. The tightening of consumer privacy laws and the gradual phase-out of third-party cookies further drives the need for retailers to collect and manage first-party customer data.

As personalization is critical to driving sales, and competition is increasing in the grocery space, retailers need to plan and implement initiatives to gain control of customer data and customer relationships.

Implications for Brands/Retailers

  • Grocery retailers should focus on implementing an omnichannel strategy that provides a connected experience for customers––and the right technology solutions can help facilitate these experiences and services.
  • Grocery retailers should expand their end-to-end operations and take control of their customer relationships and data.
  • Grocery retailers should leverage customer loyalty programs to access first-party data and generate insights into shopper behavior, preferences and demand.
  • Grocery retailers should build their retail media capabilities to generate incremental revenue.

Implications for Technology Vendors

  • Technology solution providers that help retailers offer a truly blended omnichannel experience to shoppers can work with grocery retailers to build and manage their end-to-end operations.

About Coresight Research Custom Reports

Coresight Research Custom Reports are produced as part of commercial partnerships with leading firms in the retail, technology and startup ecosystems. These Custom Reports present expert analysis and proprietary data on key topics in the retail, technology and related industries, and enable partner companies to communicate their brand and messaging to a wider audience within the context of brand-relevant research.

This Custom Report is sponsored by Swiftly, a US-based retail technology solution provider. For more information, visit Swiftly.com.

Our Three Things You Need To Know series provides free snapshots of Coresight Research data and findings.

This graphic presents selected insights on the consumer health category in the US consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector.

Subscribers can access the full research behind this graphic here. To find out how to subscribe, click here.

Currently, the consumer health category within the US CPG sector is marked by spin-offs by major incumbents. Moving forward, the category will provide serious growth prospects as consumers remain focused on health and wellness.

Our full report discusses the performance and outlook of the consumer health category as well as the competitive landscape and themes we are watching in the space in 2023 and beyond.

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Our weekly Earnings Insights reports feature highlights from recent management commentary from major US retailers within our Coresight 100 coverage list, as they report fourth-quarter 2022 earnings.

This week, there are highlights from companies that reported in the week ended February 26, 2023, across six sectors: apparel and footwear, beauty, e-commerce, home and home-improvement, mass merchandisers and specialty apparel. 

Data in this report are:

  • Quarterly data from companies, including gross margins and sales data by brand (where applicable), channel and geography

Companies mentioned in this report include: Alibaba, Bath & Body Works, Floor & Decor Holdings and Gildan Activewear

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The Coresight Research weekly China Consumer Tracker takes a regular temperature check on Chinese consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

In this report, we present findings from our survey conducted on February 13, 2023.

Data in this report are:

  • Expectations for economic conditions and personal finances in the next 12 months
  • Avoidance of public places, by type of public place—latest data and one-week PPT changes
  • Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks
  • What products consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks
  • A timeline of selected Covid-19 policy changes for China in February 2023

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Seven & i and Alimentation Couche-Tard are heavyweights in global convenience-store retailing. As part of the Coresight Research Head-to-Head series, we provide insights into key elements of their businesses, covering revenue and margin growth, as well as their brick-and-mortar, e-commerce and growth strategies.

Data in this report include:

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard and Seven & i—revenue, revenue growth, operating margin, FY18–FY22
  • Store counts for both retailers, in total and by business model, FY20–FY22
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Companies mentioned in this report include: 7-Eleven, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Circle K, DoorDash, Drizly, Seven & i, Skipcart, Speedway

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Reasons to Read

The Coresight Research weekly US Consumer Tracker takes a regular temperature check on US consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

In this report, we present findings from our survey conducted on February 20, 2023.

Data in this report are our latest proprietary survey findings and four-week changes for:

  • Which retailers consumers have bought food and nonfood products from in the last two weeks
  • Avoidance of public places, by type of public place
  • Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks
  • What products consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks

Companies mentioned in this report include: Aldi, Amazon, Albertsons, Ahold Delhaize, Costco, Dollar General, Dollar Tree/Family Dollar, Kohl’s, Kroger, Macy’s, Target, Walmart

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The Coresight Research US Apparel and Beauty Spending Tracker provides a monthly update on the trajectory of consumer spending on beauty, clothing and footwear. Our latest report covers spending from January 2023, showing that clothing and footwear spending increased by 6.3% year over year.

Data in this report include:

  • US consumer spending on clothing and footwear year-over-year percentage change, January 2022–January 2023
  • US consumer spending on clothing by category year-over-year percentage change, January 2022–January 2023
  • US consumer spending on footwear year-over-year percentage change, January 2022–January 2023
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Each report in the Weinswig’s Weekly series reflects on a topical theme in retail. We also highlight our key research from the past week and upcoming reports to look out for, so you don’t miss out.

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Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

Data in this report include:

  • 2023 week-by-week comparisons of announced store closures and openings in the US and the UK
  • 2022 week-by-week comparisons of announced store closures and openings in the US and the UK
  • 2023 major US store closures and openings
  • 2023 major UK store closures and openings

Companies mentioned in this report include: Aldi, Ashley HomeStore, Bass Pro, Boscov’s, Earth Fare, James Avery Artisan Jewelry, Trader Joe’s and Walmart.

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Complementing our weekly report, the Coresight Research US Store Tracker Databank offers our premium subscribers access to openings and closures data from 2012 to 2023 year to date, filterable by sector and year.

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Reasons to Read

We discuss the performance and outlook of the consumer health category within the US consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector, one marked by spin-offs by major incumbents. We also discuss factors impacting the category, the competitive landscape and themes we are watching in the space in 2023 and beyond.

Data in this report include:

  • Consumer health product sales in the US and year-over-year change for 2017 through 2026 (estimated)
  • Share of total consumer health sales by subcategory for 2021
  • Price per unit across the consumer health category in the US
  • Top healthcare companies ranked by 2021 consumer health revenue

Companies mentioned in this report include: Colgate-Palmolive, Johnson & Johnson, Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever.

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Our Three Things You Need To Know series provides free snapshots of Coresight Research data and findings.

This graphic presents selected insights on fast-fashion retailer Shein.

Subscribers can access the full research behind this graphic here. To find out how to subscribe, click here.​

Shein gained ground as a leading player in the fast-fashion market in 2022 and is set to expand its business in 2023. Building on a previous report, we explore the company’s major strategies and recent developments. Click the image below to read the full report.